From OilDrum Europe:
In a stunning interview for the French daily Le Monde, Fatih Birol, the chief economist of the International Energy Agency (i.e. the intergovernmental body created after the oil shocks of the 70s to coordinate the West’s reaction to energy crises) effectively says that peak oil is just around the corner, and that without Iraqi oil, we’ll be in deep trouble by 2015:
If Iraqi production does not rise exponentially by 2015, we have a very big problem, even if Saudi Arabia fulfills all its promises. The numbers are very simple, there’s no need to be an expert.
Urgh. It’s not just that the Western way of life need oil, it needs cheap oil. The so-called “demand destruction” is already happening. Places that have not yet been integrated in the oil economy will never be. A philosophy of technology that believes in progress or in the inevitable and immutabele nature of Technology have not been helpful in preparing us for this.
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But this is great news. If you look at the IPCC calculations on climate change and the amounts of oil they think we’ll be burning, and if you think the “oil peak” will be so soon, there actually won’t be any noticable climate change. We’ll run out of oil, but at least we won’t be burning enough CO2!
Unfotunately, all of the oil *will* be burned, regardless whether the peak is now or was 5 years ago, or will be in 5 years. Probably the same goes for coal, natural gas…
The world consumption of oil has been pretty stable for 3-4 years, and will be so another 3-4 years still. The crux is that economies/demand *have to* grow – but they can not, because supply of energy does not. This will bring the current model down. We will have both, climate change and peak oil.
Here’s Al Gore:
The focus of the new pact should be to cut “… global warming pollution by 90 percent in developed countries and by more than half worldwide in time for the next generation to inherit a healthy Earth.”
http://www.treehugger.com/files/2007/07/al_gore_propose.php
Peak oil won’t do the 90%. Something else will have to.
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